24
			

	  
Village.	
Period and its characteristics.
INOCULATED
UNINOCULATED


Units.
Attacks.
Deaths.  
Death-rate 1 in-
Units.
Attacks.
Deaths.  
Death-rate 1 in-	   
Nagardevala.
24th September to 7th October
plague increasing and rather viru-
lent .nd no inoculation ; 14 days ...
...
...
...
...
15,460
30
  24
644





















8th   October   to   13th   inoculation
started but epidemic still goes on ...
1,384
...
...
...
5,105
25
  21
243











Total   ...
1,384
...
...
...
20,565
55
  45
457

(Please note that after 13th Octobor large numbers of the Nagardevala people have been inoculated ; and 
up to date (19th) there has been one non-fatal case among the inoculated and 5 cases and 9 deaths 
among the remaining uninoculated.   Therefore the above figures do not yet show the enormous amount 
of protection afforded.)
Darovadi 
11th September  to   13th   October.
 Here inoculation was started the 
 very day that cases were first 
 discovered ; 33 days  ...      ...         ...
10,396
18
5
 2,079
6,852
47
   33
206
" The remaining village, Hingangaon, is peculiar ; it was surrounded by plague, and on 31st
of August 12 persons came to get inoculated, it having up to that time not been discovered
that there was any plague there : this strange behaviour makes it probable there was, as of the
21 persons 2 developed plague almost at once and died within 48 hours ; and a third was
atacked, but not fatally, afterwards. To complete the first summary however these figures
will be included and discussed below.
		
	
Village.	
Period and its characteristics.	
INOCULATED
UNINOCULATED


Units.
Attacks.
Deaths.
Death-rate 1 in-
Units.
Attacks.
Deaths.
Death-rate 1 in-
Hingangaon.
Scarcely any inoculation from 2nd 
September to 13th October; 44 days 
453
3
   2
226
34,635
62
   42
824
" The following table sums up the occurrences in the above villages :-

Villages.
INOCULATED UNITS.
UNINOCULATED UNITS.

Total.
Cases.
Deaths.
Death-rate 1 in-
Total.
Cases.
Deaths.
Death-rate 1 in-
Arangaon  ...       ...       
41,083
11
6
6,847
105,246
74
48
2,192
Vakodi    ...       ...       
28,334
8
2
14,162
60,515
54
39
1,551
Nepti      ...       ...      
7,443
6
2
3,721
70,348
69
54
1,302
Valunj     ...       ...      
21,417
8
7
3,060
25,295
77
73
345
Nimblak ...      ...         
2,269
9
2
1,135
37,329
56
34
1,098
Bhingár    ...      ...        
31,338
7
5
6,267
148,300
59
47
3,155
Nagardevala      ...         ... 
1,384
...
...
…
20,565
55
45
457
Darevadi  ...      ...         
10,396
18
5
2,079
6,852
47
33
206
Hingangaon       ...         ..
453
3
2
226
34,635
62
42
824
Grand Total    ...
144,117
70
31
4,648.9
509,085
563
415
1,226.7
"Now the meaning of the above is that, assuming that the exposure of the inoculated
units was just the same as that of the uninoculated units, then the inoculated had a daily
plague death-rate of 1 in 4,648.9 while the uninoculated had a daily death-rate of 1 in 1,226.7;
or, if the inoculated had not been protected, they would have presumably died at the same rate
as the others and lost 117.6 lives instead of 31 ; so that by inoculation 86.6 lives were saved,
or a percentage of 73.6.
 "When we recall that as a fact the inoculated were more exposed and that it was those
who had had deaths in their families and close neighbourhoods who were most ready to try the
protection, the real truth is that they were protected much more than 73.6 per cent. But even
if their greater exposure is disallowed, still we have the incontrovertible fact that they lost
73 per cent. less lives from plague than the uninoculated."
The only case in the series given above in which a doubtful result is shown
is the village of Hingangaon where out of the 12 persons inoculated 2 developed
plague within 48 hours and subsequently died.   The fact that these 12 persons